Statistical Analysis of VTM (Value-to-Team)

JoshLind · 06-30-2010, 05:55 PM

As some of you may know, over the last few years I have been developing a statistical method for determining a player's VTM (value-to-team). I understand the limitations of using statistics, especially in NHL hockey, but I find it fun and helpful to analyze them.

I won't divulge my entire method, but I would like to share a portion of the table I've developed, and invite comments and suggestions. Keep in mind, this is only part of the picture, and it is designed to determine VALUE to a player's team, NOT who is a better player.

*Note - (ESG) This part of the table does not use goals and assists collected on the powerplay or penalty kill. I have a separate section for special teams. I firmly believe that when comparing point production, EVEN-STRENGTH numbers paint a truer picture than overall ones do. However, special teams production cannot be ignored, so it has its own section.

Code:

FORWARDS	        DEFENCEMEN	        GOALIES
		
ESG – min. gp = 24  	ESG – min. gp = 24	S% min. gp = 24
40 = 0.4 = 0.50         12 = 0.4 = 0.15	        .930 = 0.8 
30 = 0.3 = 0.37       	9 = 0.3 = 0.11	        .922 = 0.6  
20 = 0.2 = 0.24       	6 = 0.2 = 0.07	        .914 = 0.4 
10 = 0.1 = 0.12       	3 = 0.1 = 0.03	        .907 = 0.2 
		 
ESA – min. gp = 24      ESA – min. gp = 24	SO 
60 = 0.4 = 0.74         36 = 0.4 = 0.44    	10 = 0.8
45 = 0.3 = 0.55       	27 = 0.3 = 0.33      	7 = 0.6
30 = 0.2 = 0.36       	18 = 0.2 = 0.22      	4 = 0.4
15 = 0.1 = 0.18       	9 = 0.1 = 0.11	        2 = 0.2
	
B – min. gp = 24	B – min. gp = 24
100 = 0.3 = 1.22	240 = 0.3 = 2.96
75 = 0.2 = 0.92      	180 = 0.2 = 2.22
50 = 0.1 = 0.61      	120 = 0.1 = 1.48
	
T – min. gp = 24	T – min. gp = 24
100 = 0.3 = 1.22	72 = 0.3 = 0.88
75 = 0.2 = 0.92      	54 = 0.2 = 0.66
50 = 0.1 = 0.61      	36 = 0.1 = 0.44
	
H – min. gp = 24	H – min. gp = 24
360 = 0.3 = 4.40	360 = 0.3 = 4.40
270 = 0.2 = 3.30	270 = 0.2 = 3.30
180 = 0.1 = 2.25	180 = 0.1 = 2.25

JoshLind · 06-30-2010, 08:20 PM

Early observations:

So far, I've only assessed 11 teams using the method. The teams are Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Columbus, Florida, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, Ottawa, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. Also, many free agents are left unsigned and the makeup of many of theses teams will change drastically. For those reasons, these preliminary findings are incomplete.

Of the 11 teams:

Best in the West - Chicago
Best in the East - Boston
Worst in West - Columbus
Worst in East - Florida
Most improved in West - St. Louis
Most improved in East - Atlanta (pending FAs)
Biggest drop in West - Nashville
Biggest drop in East - Philadelphia
Underrated players - Brent Seabrook, David Backes, Barett Jackman, Ty Conklin, Joel Ward, Rotislav Klesla, Zach Bogosian, Patrice Bergeron, Greg Campbell, Mike Fisher, Andy Sutton, Stephen Weiss, Tomas Vokoun
Overrated players - Brad Boyes, David Legwand, Denis Grebeshkov, Kristian Huselius, Marc Savard, Michael Ryder, Matt Hunwick, Milan Michalek, Alex Kovalev, Jamie Langenbrunner, Simon Gagne, Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux, Braydon Coburn, Carey Price

Rayzor123 · 06-30-2010, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Worst in East - Montreal

SenSational · 06-30-2010, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rayzor123

Droc · 06-30-2010, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigfoot

Droc · 06-30-2010, 09:58 PM

I dont see a breakdown, but Im guessing your factoring a players production/dollar based on the percentage of the teams cap?

Rayzor123 · 06-30-2010, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigfoot

Team that went to the conference finals can't be the worst in the East.

Droc · 06-30-2010, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rayzor123

Team that went to the conference finals can't be the worst in the East.

But the team that traded away the golden-ticket goalie can.

JoshLind · 07-01-2010, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rayzor123

Actually, on second look, the worst of the Eastern Conf. teams is Florida. That was only out of the 7 East teams I did, though. Also, Montreal could stand to move up a lot; they have most of their important FAs locked up, other than the goalies. That's why I was firm on the fact that these were preliminary observations, and hesitant to post them. Also, if other teams don't sign or replace their free agents, they will surely drop below Montreal.

For example:

- The Thrashers need contracts for some very important players - Hedberg, Kubina, Afinogenov, Little, and Schubert, and then to a lesser extent, Popovic, Armstrong, Bergfors, MacArthur, Artyukhin, and Pavelec. Can Atlanta either re-sign or replace all these players? If yes, they'll be better than Montreal, but if not then they likely won't.

- OK, so Boston will still be better than Montreal even if they can't re-sign/replace Campbell, Wheeler, Paille, Satan, Begin, and Stuart. But if they don't, then it'll be a much closer race.

- Ottawa won't do better than the Habs if they can't assess the potential losses of Volchenkov, Sutton, Cullen, and Regin, and even the roles of Campoli, Foligno, and Winchester still need to be filled.

- New Jersey is another great example. If they can't re-sign/replace their big three (Kovalchuk, Martin, Skoula) and Montreal gets theirs (Price, Ellis, Boyd/Bergeron/Mara), then Montreal will do better.

- The Flyers might do worse than the Habs. Very curious to see what they do in free agency.

JoshLind · 07-01-2010, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rayzor123

Team that went to the conference finals can't be the worst in the East.

For the record, as early as 2008-09, the Carolina Hurricanes made the ECF and finished 11th in the East the following year. I haven't looked at the other years, but I'd expect similar results.

JoshLind · 07-01-2010, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Droc

I dont see a breakdown, but Im guessing your factoring a players production/dollar based on the percentage of the teams cap?

Yeah, that's part of how I judge if a certain player is over/underrated . I also compare my results to the lists found at TSN (NHL Player Rankings-All) and CBS (NHL Player Rankings - CBSSports.com).

Rayzor123 · 07-01-2010, 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoshLind

For the record, as early as 2008-09, the Carolina Hurricanes made the ECF and finished 11th in the East the following year. I haven't looked at the other years, but I'd expect similar results.

Except we're making moves that will impact and help the team. Plus, we have our core locked up, and the team pretty much bonded together during this unexpected long run. We played 15 more games than any 'expert' predicted us to. I think the Habs will have a ton of confidence heading in to the 2010-2011 season. But you know, do like everyone did and underestimate us. We like it.

JoshLind · 07-01-2010, 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rayzor123

Except we're making moves that will impact and help the team. Plus, we have our core locked up, and the team pretty much bonded together during this unexpected long run. We played 15 more games than any 'expert' predicted us to. I think the Habs will have a ton of confidence heading in to the 2010-2011 season. But you know, do like everyone did and underestimate us. We like it.

We'll see where they stand once I do the rest of the Conference, and once all the FAs have been signed.